Bush vs. Kerry: who will win?, you're opinions Options

[strice]

most of my friends take the stance of, "anyone but bush", republican and democrat alike.

[ComradeRed]

I wrote a post that no one has rebutted yet. Basically: Bush WILL lose the election because of the Reform Party. They got 15% of the vote in 1992, I'm betting you they will get at least 5% this year, easily costing Bush the election.

Pat Buchanan's American Conservative magazine is having record sales. It bashes Bush more than anything I've seen on the liberal side. Buchanan has the potential to get even more votes than Nader, as exit polls consisently reveal that 20% of AMericans classify themselves as liberals, while 30% say they are conservative (and 50% moderate). MANY of the "conservatives" are actually conservatives, not neo-cons. They are anti-Bush every bit as much as anti-Kerry. They voted FOR Bush in 2000, because during that election Bush promised a BALANCED BUDGET and a "MORE HUMBLE FOREIGN POLICY" -- his own words. Many of them are going to vote against him just because he went against those promises.

Kerry even has a chance in rock-ribbed Republican Georgia, albeit a very small one, where Buchanan has as high as 8-10% in some exit polls right now, especially among "White Religious-Right", who are upset at Bush's unwillingness to take a hardline on affirmative action and secularism, and at the same time his gallavanting abroad.

If the Libertarian Party nominates Aaron Russo, he has a very good chance at getting alot of Republican votes in Nevada, which will switch the state to Kerry. When he ran for governor of the state as a libertarian, he got 47% in the polls before dropping out because of cancer. In 2000, Bush only won 47% to 46% in Nevada, with the combined Libertarian/Reform vote totally 3%.

Yet another wildcard is RepublicanTexas Congressman Ron Paul (www.paul2004.com), extremely popular among traditional conservatives. When he ran for president in 1988 as an independent, he got over half a million votes: the second most for any independent candidate in American history. He was elected to the House in 1996 and his popularity has only grown since. Right now, he is NOT interested in running, but if he does, that's easily another million or two Bush votes. His forceful opposition to reinstating the Draft recently has also gained him alot of popularity among Goldwater and Reagan-conservatives.

The neo-conservative/conservative split in the Republican Party today is far bigger than any radical/traditional split in the Democratic Party, even in 2000, when Nader took 3% of the vote. 2004 will be a repeat of 1992. I doubt Kerry will win the popular vote, but the Electoral College is on his side. Kerry might get upwards of 300 electoral votes, though I think that a more realistic estimate is 280-ish. The key state is going to be Ohio, which will probably switch to Kerry.

[AmesBond]

I think Bush'll win, not that I care too much for that, but because current presidents have a (I forgot the percentages) 50-70% chance of winning re-elections.

[ComradeRed]

I think Bush'll win, not that I care too much for that, but because current presidents have a (I forgot the percentages) 50-70% chance of winning re-elections.

....

In 1932, Presidents had a 100% chance of being re-elected if they ran for a second term.

That doesn't mean Hoover had a good chance of defeating FDR.

[angel-roh]

umm i dont read the newspapers for years and plus my channels are not working...so wat was kerry speech and also bush?

[WildGriffin]

umm i dont read the newspapers for years and plus my channels are not working...so wat was kerry speech and also bush?

It's a wonderous thing invented by two men, a thing called www.google.com. I can say with upmost certainty that typing in "Kerry Speech" or "Bush Speech" will turn up some links to what ever material you are currently intrested in.

[LiNHy POO]

personally i dont like bush! bush isnt very open-minded... i like kerry better

[pimpin231]

i say kerry

[EmeraldKnight]

I dont follow current politics that much, but I definitely hope Kerry wins... Bush is such a bad leader.. I mean, he did a good job after 9/11 but then it got out of hand.. going into Iraq with little support, going from a surplus to half a trillion in debt..

[Spirited Away]

I dont follow current politics that much, but I definitely hope Kerry wins... Bush is such a bad leader.. I mean, he did a good job after 9/11 but then it got out of hand.. going into Iraq with little support, going from a surplus to half a trillion in debt..

We were always in debt. There wasn't a time since the WWs that we weren't in debt.

[EmeraldKnight]

Clinton left office with a surplus, how is that in debt?

[X serenity]

as much as i hate to admit it, i think bush is going to win. bush had started the war, now he must end it. one problem is that bush can't even say "social security" right.

[Spirited Away]

For all my logic, I had to forget Clinton and his darn surplus. My bad.



But why do you blame all of this Debt on Bush, not all of it was on his part. Infact, the largest amount of the debt so far came from the recession, not the war, surprisingly.

EDIT::

We're confusing the word deficit with debt. We've been in debt since WWs.

Even when government officials claim to have a surplus, they still spend more than they get in.

What Clinton achieved was surplus on deficit, not debt.

[EmeraldKnight]

For all my logic, I had to forget Clinton and his darn surplus. My bad. 



But why do you blame all of this Debt on Bush, not all of it was on his part. Infact, the largest amount of the debt so far came from the recession, not the war, surprisingly.

EDIT::

We're confusing the word deficit with debt. We've been in debt since WWs.

Even when government officials claim to have a surplus, they still spend more than they get in.

What Clinton achieved was surplus on deficit, not debt.

oh well when i first mentinoed "debt" I meant "deficit" and yes, the recession helped, but so did the tax cuts he gave us.. i mean, sure, ppl liked it, but it came at the wrong time.. you cant have tax cuts AND a war at the same time

[Spirited Away]

oh well when i first mentinoed "debt" I meant "deficit" and yes, the recession helped, but so did the tax cuts he gave us.. i mean, sure, ppl liked it, but it came at the wrong time.. you cant have tax cuts AND a war at the same time

I agree that the tax cut was rather reckless (I've said so before). So the man made one mistake, albeit a big one, everyone's going to bash him for something he did... that they liked? That's a HUGE contradiction on the people's part.

[EmeraldKnight]

I agree that the tax cut was rather reckless (I've said so before). So the man made one mistake, albeit a big one, everyone's going to bash him for something he did... that they liked? That's a HUGE contradiction on the people's part.

I never said that he'd lose the election because of it, if you read my first comment, i mentioned that I hope Kerry wins, not that I think he will

[Spirited Away]

I never said that he'd lose the election because of it, if you read my first comment, i mentioned that I hope Kerry wins, not that I think he will

I didn't say that you said he would lose... I asked in general why people dislike him for doing something they obviously enjoy?

Sorry if you thought I meant something else

[EmeraldKnight]

because it ultimately hurts the economy and the country

[Spirited Away]

That's why I said that it was a contradiction on the people's part. Because they obviously want it, and then get mad when someone gives it to them.

[ryfitaDF]

OOOOH. i evened the antie. 10 and 10. go me!

[EmeraldKnight]

and I unevened it

[ComradeRed]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/05/21/...ain619019.shtml

Food for thought.

A third-party movement can be viable as early as 2006, seeing as the difference between the Democrats and Republicans is narrowing by the day:

Both Kerry and Bush support the Patriot Act.
Both support slavery, in the form of selective service.
Both support increased social spending.
Both support US intervention abroad.

If Bush loses and the Republican Party moves "to the left" in 2004, then we can expect a very substantial conservative backlash afterwards.

[EmeraldKnight]

Haha, Minda with the daily political update, thanks for keeping us informed!

[justbecausexx]

I say Bush. We're in the middle of a war and people vote for him for god knows what reason.

we are not in the middle of war. the US just can't keep their noses out of other people's business. and i can't say who will win..but i'm hoping that john kerry will win.

[Godsend]

KERRY! oh wait, do u mean the fat old dude, kerry or my friend kerry? oh wellz both kerrys would win hahaha stupid bush...