The Reform Party, AKA Why Bush will lose in 2004 Options

[ComradeRed]

In 1992, Bush's dad looked like he was going to beat Clinton. The country just had a very successful war and all was right. But then Bush lost. Why?

Because the Reform Party got 15% of the vote. That is MANY times what Ralph Nader got in 2000 and it is accepted that he cost Gore the election.

The Reform Party was created by conservatives who were angered by Bush Sr.'s excessive spending and tax hikes, as well as his interventions abroad. This Neoconservative streak in Bush Sr is EXACTLY what is being demonstrated by Bush Jr.

The record number of subscriptions to the American Conservative Magazine (http://www.amconmag.com) and the increasing number of conservatives who are anti-Bush (for various reasons, mostly either spending or foreign intervention), could potentially give Pat Buchanan of the Refom Party at least two or three million votes (Nader has close to 3 million), enough to switch some key states like Ohio to Kerry's side and win him the election.

Personally I find Buchanan to be a xenophobe and a religious fanatic, and I will vote Libertarian in 2004, but here is why he will probably get enough votes from disillusioned Republicans to cost Bush the election:

1) The Isolationist Vote

Many conservatives still believe in earlier foreign policies of Prudence and Humility. These people detest Bush's interventions abroad as well as his immigration policies, and courting of the Hispanic vote.

2) The Realist Vote

Realitsts see Bush's gallavanting about Iraq as extremely harmful to America's foreign policy credibility and as a distraction from the more important War on Terrorism. Realists deem Bush's foreign policy to be Wilsonian: creating a world of good fighting evil and using military force whenever possible, rather than a world of realism and pragmatic foreign policy, and resorting to primarily diplomacy. Most realists like Reagan's foreign policy, which, though made out today to be Neoconservative, was actually fairly restrained and prudent.

3) The Fiscal Conservative Vote

Fact: Bush is the biggest spender ever in the White House. He makes FDR look like a conservative. The War in Iraq doesn't even begin to explain it. His tax cuts, moreover, only increasing teh deficit, are further alienating 'balanced budget' conservatives, who may vote Reform or Libertarian in the coming election.

4) The Conservative Populist (Nationalist) Vote

American nationalists, mostly working class, suffering from job loss and outsourcing, and seeing that Bush is unwilling to take a hardline against affirmative action, will probably vote for the much more nationalistic Buchanan this time around as well.

5) The Small Government Vote

These people, mostly former Republicans, may very well be mostly aligned with the Libertarian Party in 2004. Seeing Bush as "Big Brother" Republicanism, with measures such as the PATRIOT Act and even threats to resume Selective Service, as well as Bush's coddling of the Big Corporations and business subsidies, no longer believe that the Republican Party is committed to small government (which was Reagan's campaign platform). With the Republican Party itself, and especially Bush, having abandoned Reagan's promises, these people will see no further reason to support the neoconservative, big-government Republicans.


For these reasons, I firmly believe that Bush IS going to lose in 2004, and that Buchanan's candidacy will be a major factor. Reform and Libertarian Parties combined have the potential to get 4-5% of the vote away from what would MOSTLY, but not entirely, be Republican votes, enough to swing the favor decisively to the Democrats.

If Bush wants to stay in office, it would be wise for him to turn away from his staunch neoconservatism, or risk alienating a third part of his own party.