Bush vs. Kerry: who will win?, you're opinions Options

[oOyunieOo]

I personally think it will be a tight race, but I'm not sure America would want to change Presidents in the middle of a war, so I go Bush.

[ComradeRed]

I wrote a post that no one has rebutted yet. Basically: Bush WILL lose the election because of the Reform Party. They got 15% of the vote in 1992, I'm betting you they will get at least 5% this year, easily costing Bush the election.

Pat Buchanan's American Conservative magazine is having record sales. It bashes Bush more than anything I've seen on the liberal side. Buchanan has the potential to get even more votes than Nader, as exit polls consisently reveal that 20% of AMericans classify themselves as liberals, while 30% say they are conservative (and 50% moderate). MANY of the "conservatives" are actually conservatives, not neo-cons. They are anti-Bush every bit as much as anti-Kerry. They voted FOR Bush in 2000, because during that election Bush promised a BALANCED BUDGET and a "MORE HUMBLE FOREIGN POLICY" -- his own words. Many of them are going to vote against him just because he went against those promises.

Kerry even has a chance in rock-ribbed Republican Georgia, albeit a very small one, where Buchanan has as high as 8-10% in some exit polls right now, especially among "White Religious-Right", who are upset at Bush's unwillingness to take a hardline on affirmative action and secularism, and at the same time his gallavanting abroad.

If the Libertarian Party nominates Aaron Russo, he has a very good chance at getting alot of Republican votes in Nevada, which will switch the state to Kerry. When he ran for governor of the state as a libertarian, he got 47% in the polls before dropping out because of cancer. In 2000, Bush only won 47% to 46% in Nevada, with the combined Libertarian/Reform vote totally 3%.

Yet another wildcard is RepublicanTexas Congressman Ron Paul (www.paul2004.com), extremely popular among traditional conservatives. When he ran for president in 1988 as an independent, he got over half a million votes: the second most for any independent candidate in American history. He was elected to the House in 1996 and his popularity has only grown since. Right now, he is NOT interested in running, but if he does, that's easily another million or two Bush votes. His forceful opposition to reinstating the Draft recently has also gained him alot of popularity among Goldwater and Reagan-conservatives.

The neo-conservative/conservative split in the Republican Party today is far bigger than any radical/traditional split in the Democratic Party, even in 2000, when Nader took 3% of the vote. 2004 will be a repeat of 1992. I doubt Kerry will win the popular vote, but the Electoral College is on his side. Kerry might get upwards of 300 electoral votes, though I think that a more realistic estimate is 280-ish. The key state is going to be Ohio, which will probably switch to Kerry.