Bush vs. Kerry: who will win?, you're opinions Options

[oOyunieOo]

I personally think it will be a tight race, but I'm not sure America would want to change Presidents in the middle of a war, so I go Bush.

[ComradeRed]

Bush will win. Republican is tied together, there's no Green Party to take away votes from the Republicans. Also, Bush may have stuff against him, but remember, Florida and Texas are mostly on his side, as demonstrated in the 2k election.

Haha, only there IS a green party to take away votes from the Republicans: The US Reform Party, led by Pat Buchanan. I wrote a lengthy article on why Buchanan would take away so many votes for Bush that Bush would lose the election, but it got moved to the Lounge.

Basically the gist of it is this:

Bush has pretty much split the Republican Party in two through his neo-conservatism, just like his daddy did. All the hardline conservatives (not neo-cons, I mean conservatives: pro-balanced budget, anti-war, religious right-wingers) are likely to support the Reform Party, as they did in 1992.

Ross Perot got 15% of the vote in 1992 as the Reform Party. I'm willing to bet Buchanan will get at least 5%, switching the vote to Kerry.

Add to that the factor of job loss, and I think it's reasonable to say that Kerry has a much better chance of winning than Bush. No one thought Clinton would win in 1992, and he won because Bush Sr. was a neo-con who alienated a third of his own party. This is exactly what Bush Jr. is doing?

The Reform Party magazine, American Conservative (www.amconmag.com) is selling very well I hear.