Bush vs. Kerry: who will win?, you're opinions Options

[oOyunieOo]

I personally think it will be a tight race, but I'm not sure America would want to change Presidents in the middle of a war, so I go Bush.

[WildGriffin]

I say Bush. We're in the middle of a war and people vote for him for god knows what reason.

[immersion31]

i think kerry, cuz bush has lots of stuff against him

[*Kathleen*]

I say Bush. We're in the middle of a war and people vote for him for god knows what reason.

Haha I second that. It's true - Bush started it...he should finish it just as well.

[ComradeRed]

Here's my prediction: a 286 to 252 win for Kerry. The key battleground state in 2004 will be Ohio, which I think Kerry will pick up on jobs.

[Mireh]

I'm not sure. Its going to be fooking tight though.

People (like myself) are going to vote (bah...I can't vote though. ) for Bush because he has taken us so far into this Mire. Lets see what he has left for us. Maybe he can veer us out of this.

Kerry =

[*Kathleen*]

Kerry = 

You're too cute, Val. I agree.

[ComradeRed]

I'm not sure. Its going to be fooking tight though.

People (like myself) are going to vote (bah...I can't vote though. ) for Bush because he has taken us so far into this Mire. Lets see what he has left for us. Maybe he can veer us out of this.

Kerry =

haha a pro-Bush liberal. I'm a pro-Kerry conservative.

The way I see it most presidents do more bad than good. Hopefully, Kerry will be hogtied by the Republican Congress so that nothign gets done in four years and then we can get a real president.

Bush isn't really a conservative anyway. He's raised spending (including social spending) far more than any president to date, including Clinton.

[onenonly101]

I think Bush will win, because as much as these voters bash him they still vote for him and his ideas in November. Personally I hope Bush wins. Kerry.. i just don't believe in him.

[Spirited Away]

People (like myself) are going to vote (bah...I can't vote though. )

I'm registered to vote. I shall vote Bush for the lot of you.

[ComradeRed]

I think Bush will win, because as much as these voters bash him they still vote for him and his ideas in November. Personally I hope Bush wins. Kerry.. i just don't believe in him.

Well, I'm sure you've had to agree with SOMETHING Kerry said .

No, but seriously, Ohio has a very strong union vote. War or no war, Ohio is probably going to vote democrat on job loss. Same with West Virginia. If Kerry wins Ohio, it's over for Bush.

[WildGriffin]

lets hold a vote for who uninspiredfae will vote for.
direct voting + water = electoral college voting
electoral college voting + water = our vote for who fae should vote for.

[Spirited Away]

lets hold a vote for who uninspiredfae will vote for.
direct voting + water = electoral college voting
electoral college voting + water = our vote for who fae should vote for.

Haha,

Fae shall vote for BUSH. No need to poll on that one Griffin.

<-- don't like Kerry.

[onenonly101]

Well, I'm sure you've had to agree with SOMETHING Kerry said .

No, but seriously, Ohio has a very strong union vote. War or no war, Ohio is probably going to vote democrat on job loss. Same with West Virginia. If Kerry wins Ohio, it's over for Bush.

Yeah but then again people thought the same with Florida and that Gore would win. I think again Nader will upset the vote.

I do agree when he says he shouldn't ship companies overseas, but then again his wife's company Heinz has shipped most of its jobs overseas

[ComradeRed]

Yeah but then again people thought the same with Florida and that Gore would win. I think again Nader will upset the vote.

I do agree when he says he shouldn't ship companies overseas, but then again his wife's company Heinz has shipped most of its jobs overseas

I'm not AGAINST outscouring. I think outsourcing is good for the economy. I have done extensive research on this topic. Basically only ONE out of every SIX Americans works in an industry vulnerable to outsourcing. For the other FIVE, outsourcing means lower prices and MORE jobs.

Without outsourcing, we'd actually have about teh same amount of net jobs, and higher prices for the consumer in the street and higher inflation, hurting us all.

I'm just saying that it's an issue people will vote on.

Nader will NOT upset the vote. I've heard that he plans to drop out of the election and 'save' it for the democrats, so that he can get even more votes in 2008.

Besides, if the Libertarian Party nominates the movie producer Aaron Russo, he could potentially take away enough Republcian votes in Nevada to switch the state to Kerry, which combined with West Virginia would win the election also (When Russo ran for governor of Nevada as a libertarian, he got 47% in the polls before dropping out for bladder cancer).

[Spirited Away]

I'm not AGAINST outscouring. I think outsourcing is good for the economy. I have done extensive research on this topic. Basically only ONE out of every SIX Americans works in an industry vulnerable to outsourcing. For the other FIVE, outsourcing means lower prices and MORE jobs.

Thank you! At least now there's someone else who understands outsourcing for what it is!

[WildGriffin]

*clears throat*

THEY TUK OUR JERBS!!!

I heard outsourcing was failing though due to the shoddy work of underpaid, undereducated foreigners. I'm not one to argue against outsourcing though, my mom works for Misys which outsources it's software development stuff. Keeps food on my plate

[juliar]

Bush will win. Republican is tied together, there's no Green Party to take away votes from the Republicans. Also, Bush may have stuff against him, but remember, Florida and Texas are mostly on his side, as demonstrated in the 2k election.

[WildGriffin]

Florida and Texas are mostly on his side, as demonstrated in the 2k election.

I'm not sure about florida.

come to think of it, are they even allowed in this year's elections?

[Spirited Away]

THEY TUK OUR JERBS!!!

I heard outsourcing was failing though due to the shoddy work of underpaid, undereducated foreigners. I'm not one to argue against outsourcing though, my mom works for Misys which outsources it's software development stuff. Keeps food on my plate

My parents said the sameeee thing: "Our jobs are going overseas".

I told me Mom: "Don't worry, by the time some foreigner's doing your job, I would already be making enough money to take care of you". *Collective 'AWs' in the dinning room*

[ComradeRed]

Bush will win. Republican is tied together, there's no Green Party to take away votes from the Republicans. Also, Bush may have stuff against him, but remember, Florida and Texas are mostly on his side, as demonstrated in the 2k election.

Bush only won like 271-267 in 2000 even with Florida.

West Virginia will switch to Kerry I can guarantee that. They always vote democrat. Gore only lost cause he was an environmentalist. Kerry will pick up.

Ohio is going to be the key battleground state this time around. Kerry has a very good chance there. And if he wins Ohio, it's all over.

[*CrackedRearView*]

Kerry says what the people want to hear.

Moldable minds aren't presidential material.

- Card-carrying Republican, and voting for Bush.

[*AngelicEyz00*]

i vote kerry... i think bush has a better chance of winning though

[ComradeRed]

Bush will win. Republican is tied together, there's no Green Party to take away votes from the Republicans. Also, Bush may have stuff against him, but remember, Florida and Texas are mostly on his side, as demonstrated in the 2k election.

Haha, only there IS a green party to take away votes from the Republicans: The US Reform Party, led by Pat Buchanan. I wrote a lengthy article on why Buchanan would take away so many votes for Bush that Bush would lose the election, but it got moved to the Lounge.

Basically the gist of it is this:

Bush has pretty much split the Republican Party in two through his neo-conservatism, just like his daddy did. All the hardline conservatives (not neo-cons, I mean conservatives: pro-balanced budget, anti-war, religious right-wingers) are likely to support the Reform Party, as they did in 1992.

Ross Perot got 15% of the vote in 1992 as the Reform Party. I'm willing to bet Buchanan will get at least 5%, switching the vote to Kerry.

Add to that the factor of job loss, and I think it's reasonable to say that Kerry has a much better chance of winning than Bush. No one thought Clinton would win in 1992, and he won because Bush Sr. was a neo-con who alienated a third of his own party. This is exactly what Bush Jr. is doing?

The Reform Party magazine, American Conservative (www.amconmag.com) is selling very well I hear.

[WhiteChocolate]

I'm registered to vote. I shall vote Bush for the lot of you.

Thank you!!!!!! You represent alot of us underaged republicans! hahaha...

[strice]

most of my friends take the stance of, "anyone but bush", republican and democrat alike.

[ComradeRed]

I wrote a post that no one has rebutted yet. Basically: Bush WILL lose the election because of the Reform Party. They got 15% of the vote in 1992, I'm betting you they will get at least 5% this year, easily costing Bush the election.

Pat Buchanan's American Conservative magazine is having record sales. It bashes Bush more than anything I've seen on the liberal side. Buchanan has the potential to get even more votes than Nader, as exit polls consisently reveal that 20% of AMericans classify themselves as liberals, while 30% say they are conservative (and 50% moderate). MANY of the "conservatives" are actually conservatives, not neo-cons. They are anti-Bush every bit as much as anti-Kerry. They voted FOR Bush in 2000, because during that election Bush promised a BALANCED BUDGET and a "MORE HUMBLE FOREIGN POLICY" -- his own words. Many of them are going to vote against him just because he went against those promises.

Kerry even has a chance in rock-ribbed Republican Georgia, albeit a very small one, where Buchanan has as high as 8-10% in some exit polls right now, especially among "White Religious-Right", who are upset at Bush's unwillingness to take a hardline on affirmative action and secularism, and at the same time his gallavanting abroad.

If the Libertarian Party nominates Aaron Russo, he has a very good chance at getting alot of Republican votes in Nevada, which will switch the state to Kerry. When he ran for governor of the state as a libertarian, he got 47% in the polls before dropping out because of cancer. In 2000, Bush only won 47% to 46% in Nevada, with the combined Libertarian/Reform vote totally 3%.

Yet another wildcard is RepublicanTexas Congressman Ron Paul (www.paul2004.com), extremely popular among traditional conservatives. When he ran for president in 1988 as an independent, he got over half a million votes: the second most for any independent candidate in American history. He was elected to the House in 1996 and his popularity has only grown since. Right now, he is NOT interested in running, but if he does, that's easily another million or two Bush votes. His forceful opposition to reinstating the Draft recently has also gained him alot of popularity among Goldwater and Reagan-conservatives.

The neo-conservative/conservative split in the Republican Party today is far bigger than any radical/traditional split in the Democratic Party, even in 2000, when Nader took 3% of the vote. 2004 will be a repeat of 1992. I doubt Kerry will win the popular vote, but the Electoral College is on his side. Kerry might get upwards of 300 electoral votes, though I think that a more realistic estimate is 280-ish. The key state is going to be Ohio, which will probably switch to Kerry.

[AmesBond]

I think Bush'll win, not that I care too much for that, but because current presidents have a (I forgot the percentages) 50-70% chance of winning re-elections.

[ComradeRed]

I think Bush'll win, not that I care too much for that, but because current presidents have a (I forgot the percentages) 50-70% chance of winning re-elections.

....

In 1932, Presidents had a 100% chance of being re-elected if they ran for a second term.

That doesn't mean Hoover had a good chance of defeating FDR.

[angel-roh]

umm i dont read the newspapers for years and plus my channels are not working...so wat was kerry speech and also bush?

[WildGriffin]

umm i dont read the newspapers for years and plus my channels are not working...so wat was kerry speech and also bush?

It's a wonderous thing invented by two men, a thing called www.google.com. I can say with upmost certainty that typing in "Kerry Speech" or "Bush Speech" will turn up some links to what ever material you are currently intrested in.

[LiNHy POO]

personally i dont like bush! bush isnt very open-minded... i like kerry better

[pimpin231]

i say kerry

[EmeraldKnight]

I dont follow current politics that much, but I definitely hope Kerry wins... Bush is such a bad leader.. I mean, he did a good job after 9/11 but then it got out of hand.. going into Iraq with little support, going from a surplus to half a trillion in debt..

[Spirited Away]

I dont follow current politics that much, but I definitely hope Kerry wins... Bush is such a bad leader.. I mean, he did a good job after 9/11 but then it got out of hand.. going into Iraq with little support, going from a surplus to half a trillion in debt..

We were always in debt. There wasn't a time since the WWs that we weren't in debt.

[EmeraldKnight]

Clinton left office with a surplus, how is that in debt?

[X serenity]

as much as i hate to admit it, i think bush is going to win. bush had started the war, now he must end it. one problem is that bush can't even say "social security" right.

[Spirited Away]

For all my logic, I had to forget Clinton and his darn surplus. My bad.



But why do you blame all of this Debt on Bush, not all of it was on his part. Infact, the largest amount of the debt so far came from the recession, not the war, surprisingly.

EDIT::

We're confusing the word deficit with debt. We've been in debt since WWs.

Even when government officials claim to have a surplus, they still spend more than they get in.

What Clinton achieved was surplus on deficit, not debt.

[EmeraldKnight]

For all my logic, I had to forget Clinton and his darn surplus. My bad. 



But why do you blame all of this Debt on Bush, not all of it was on his part. Infact, the largest amount of the debt so far came from the recession, not the war, surprisingly.

EDIT::

We're confusing the word deficit with debt. We've been in debt since WWs.

Even when government officials claim to have a surplus, they still spend more than they get in.

What Clinton achieved was surplus on deficit, not debt.

oh well when i first mentinoed "debt" I meant "deficit" and yes, the recession helped, but so did the tax cuts he gave us.. i mean, sure, ppl liked it, but it came at the wrong time.. you cant have tax cuts AND a war at the same time

[Spirited Away]

oh well when i first mentinoed "debt" I meant "deficit" and yes, the recession helped, but so did the tax cuts he gave us.. i mean, sure, ppl liked it, but it came at the wrong time.. you cant have tax cuts AND a war at the same time

I agree that the tax cut was rather reckless (I've said so before). So the man made one mistake, albeit a big one, everyone's going to bash him for something he did... that they liked? That's a HUGE contradiction on the people's part.

[EmeraldKnight]

I agree that the tax cut was rather reckless (I've said so before). So the man made one mistake, albeit a big one, everyone's going to bash him for something he did... that they liked? That's a HUGE contradiction on the people's part.

I never said that he'd lose the election because of it, if you read my first comment, i mentioned that I hope Kerry wins, not that I think he will

[Spirited Away]

I never said that he'd lose the election because of it, if you read my first comment, i mentioned that I hope Kerry wins, not that I think he will

I didn't say that you said he would lose... I asked in general why people dislike him for doing something they obviously enjoy?

Sorry if you thought I meant something else

[EmeraldKnight]

because it ultimately hurts the economy and the country

[Spirited Away]

That's why I said that it was a contradiction on the people's part. Because they obviously want it, and then get mad when someone gives it to them.

[ryfitaDF]

OOOOH. i evened the antie. 10 and 10. go me!

[EmeraldKnight]

and I unevened it

[ComradeRed]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/05/21/...ain619019.shtml

Food for thought.

A third-party movement can be viable as early as 2006, seeing as the difference between the Democrats and Republicans is narrowing by the day:

Both Kerry and Bush support the Patriot Act.
Both support slavery, in the form of selective service.
Both support increased social spending.
Both support US intervention abroad.

If Bush loses and the Republican Party moves "to the left" in 2004, then we can expect a very substantial conservative backlash afterwards.

[EmeraldKnight]

Haha, Minda with the daily political update, thanks for keeping us informed!

[justbecausexx]

I say Bush. We're in the middle of a war and people vote for him for god knows what reason.

we are not in the middle of war. the US just can't keep their noses out of other people's business. and i can't say who will win..but i'm hoping that john kerry will win.

[Godsend]

KERRY! oh wait, do u mean the fat old dude, kerry or my friend kerry? oh wellz both kerrys would win hahaha stupid bush...

[onenonly101]

I don't think anyone can say who WILL win, but who we think will/might win

[ComradeRed]

I will bet you any amount of money that Kerry wins the election. I'm not even a democrat, but the cards are horribly stacked against Bush.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT...2004/mock04.php

Mock Election.

[onenonly101]

I don't bet, esp on un certain things. It doesn't matter what anyone says it doesn't mean Kerry will win or Bush will win. We will have to wait and see. Alot of people believed Gore would be president right now

[ComradeRed]

The polls are clearly in favor of Kerry. THe Third Party vote is going to massacre Bush. I never believed that the Election of 2000 was certain, but this election will certainly go to Kerry. Bush's approval rating is in the Low-40s and dropping. One out of every four Republicans polled still has not committed his/her vote. The closest elections historically have always been sandwhiched between two landslides. 1996 was something of a landslide. 2004 will be too.

[strice]

god damnit why hasn't anyone said "I are opinion" yet?!

[Yemmerz]

Think about what would happen if something like 9-11 occured [God forbid] while Kerry ran? Bush was so calm...he handled it very well I believe. Kerry would of gone on about peace, which is good and all, and how we shouldn't have any military action. We'd be dead by the time he got to his point. Basically what I am saying is that the country doesn't need a president like Kerry while we are dealing with the situation of Iraq. Maybe when everything is resolved....POSSIBLY Kerry can win. But even if we didn't have this whole war situation, Bush would win. Look what he's done for the country Minda PERFECTLY laid out why. You should go past to his post and read it.

[glit_gal]

I would like to say kerry, but honestly he doesn't come out as someone INTERESTING so unfortunately bush

[Yemmerz]

don't base your vote on...
-race
-personality
-religion
-popular vote
-how rich he or she[one day....] is.

just some things to consider.

[ComradeRed]

Think about what would happen if something like 9-11 occured [God forbid] while Kerry ran? Bush was so calm...he handled it very well I believe. Kerry would of gone on about peace, which is good and all, and how we shouldn't have any military action. We'd be dead by the time he got to his point. Basically what I am saying is that the country doesn't need a president like Kerry while we are dealing with the situation of Iraq. Maybe when everything is resolved....POSSIBLY Kerry can win. But even if we didn't have this whole war situation, Bush would win. Look what he's done for the country Minda PERFECTLY laid out why. You should go past to his post and read it.

You can argue that Bush is a better president, that's fine, but this is Minda, and I firmly believe that Kerry will win. Here's why:

1) Third Party Vote: In some states, the Libertarian and Constitution parties are polling as high as 4 and 5%... this is even higher than Nader did in 2000. What Nader did to Gore in 2000, Badnarik and Petrouka will do to Bush now. Many conservatives (Republicans) have already abandoned the Bush camp, because Bush IS NOT A CONSERVATIVE. In 1992, Bush's dad lost precisely because all the Conservatives voted for Ross Perot. This is what will happen again. The Libertarian Party especially. The LP is twice the size of the Green Party, and Badnarik is popular among many state organizations in the key battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Many conservatives in those states regard Bush and Kerry as equally bad (un-conservative), and thus will see that voting for either of them is throwing away their vote.

2) War: The Iraq War used to be popular, but now it's not. It's increasingly becoming a quagmire. Some Congressmen have even proposed a draft. Drafts are NEVER popular in America, and one TODAY is going to be even less popular. Even though Kerry supports the draft, people are going to instinctively vote against the war to vote against the draft, and that means against Bush. Bush's approval is in the mid-40s and dropping... this is almost as bad as Jimmy Carter, and Carter was annihilated in a landslide in 1980 by Ronald Reagan.

3) Jobs: Face it. I think outsoucring is good for the economy. But most steel workers don't. If they vote for Kerry, that could turn the key state of Ohio. If Bush loses Ohio, he loses the election.

4) Credibility: Bush might run as an honest, homegrown Southerner, but the fact remains that he broke just about all of his campaign promises. He promised to slash spending. He actually raised social spending more than ANY OTHER PRESIDENT IN AMERICAN HISTORY. He promised a more humble foreign policy. He invaded Iraq, leading to the death of hundreds of American soldiers and untold tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians and human rights atrocities. He promised a balanced budget. We now have a bigger deficit than ever. Read point 1. All the far-right conservatives hate him for all of this.

I think Kerry will not be a good president. I despise Kerry. I despise Bush too, but not as much. But in the end, I think that it is clear that Kerry will win the election.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT...2004/mock04.php
Go there, and vote in the mock election. Good fun.

[Yemmerz]

wait i thought you were for bush [?]....gosh im lost.

[ComradeRed]

I'm not for Bush, I'm against Kerry. Similarly, most democrats are not for Kerry, they are against Bush. It's a subtle but very important distinction. In WWII, for example, we fought with the Reds, but we weren't pro-Stalin, we were anti-Hitler.

Who I think SHOULD win has nothing to do with who I think WILL win. I think Michael Badnark, US Libertarian Party SHOULD win, but I highly doubt he WILL. You see the distinction? If I had to choose between Bush and Kerry, I would probably choose Bush, because I have a 100% guarantee (almost) that Bush will not be re-elected in 2008.