I personally think it will be a tight race, but I'm not sure America would want to change Presidents in the middle of a war, so I go Bush.

I say Bush. We're in the middle of a war and people vote for him for god knows what reason.

i think kerry, cuz bush has lots of stuff against him

Haha I second that. It's true - Bush started it...he should finish it just as well.

Here's my prediction: a 286 to 252 win for Kerry. The key battleground state in 2004 will be Ohio, which I think Kerry will pick up on jobs.

I'm not sure. Its going to be fooking tight though.

People (like myself) are going to vote (bah...I can't vote though. ) for Bush because he has taken us so far into this Mire. Lets see what he has left for us. Maybe he can veer us out of this.

Kerry =

You're too cute, Val. I agree.

haha a pro-Bush liberal. I'm a pro-Kerry conservative.

The way I see it most presidents do more bad than good. Hopefully, Kerry will be hogtied by the Republican Congress so that nothign gets done in four years and then we can get a real president.

Bush isn't really a conservative anyway. He's raised spending (including social spending) far more than any president to date, including Clinton.

I think Bush will win, because as much as these voters bash him they still vote for him and his ideas in November. Personally I hope Bush wins. Kerry.. i just don't believe in him.

I'm registered to vote. I shall vote Bush for the lot of you.

Well, I'm sure you've had to agree with SOMETHING Kerry said .

No, but seriously, Ohio has a very strong union vote. War or no war, Ohio is probably going to vote democrat on job loss. Same with West Virginia. If Kerry wins Ohio, it's over for Bush.

lets hold a vote for who uninspiredfae will vote for.
direct voting + water = electoral college voting
electoral college voting + water = our vote for who fae should vote for.

Haha,

Fae shall vote for BUSH. No need to poll on that one Griffin.

<-- don't like Kerry.

Yeah but then again people thought the same with Florida and that Gore would win. I think again Nader will upset the vote.

I do agree when he says he shouldn't ship companies overseas, but then again his wife's company Heinz has shipped most of its jobs overseas

I'm not AGAINST outscouring. I think outsourcing is good for the economy. I have done extensive research on this topic. Basically only ONE out of every SIX Americans works in an industry vulnerable to outsourcing. For the other FIVE, outsourcing means lower prices and MORE jobs.

Without outsourcing, we'd actually have about teh same amount of net jobs, and higher prices for the consumer in the street and higher inflation, hurting us all.

I'm just saying that it's an issue people will vote on.

Nader will NOT upset the vote. I've heard that he plans to drop out of the election and 'save' it for the democrats, so that he can get even more votes in 2008.

Besides, if the Libertarian Party nominates the movie producer Aaron Russo, he could potentially take away enough Republcian votes in Nevada to switch the state to Kerry, which combined with West Virginia would win the election also (When Russo ran for governor of Nevada as a libertarian, he got 47% in the polls before dropping out for bladder cancer).

Thank you! At least now there's someone else who understands outsourcing for what it is!

*clears throat*

THEY TUK OUR JERBS!!!

I heard outsourcing was failing though due to the shoddy work of underpaid, undereducated foreigners. I'm not one to argue against outsourcing though, my mom works for Misys which outsources it's software development stuff. Keeps food on my plate

Bush will win. Republican is tied together, there's no Green Party to take away votes from the Republicans. Also, Bush may have stuff against him, but remember, Florida and Texas are mostly on his side, as demonstrated in the 2k election.

I'm not sure about florida.

come to think of it, are they even allowed in this year's elections?

My parents said the sameeee thing: "Our jobs are going overseas".

I told me Mom: "Don't worry, by the time some foreigner's doing your job, I would already be making enough money to take care of you". *Collective 'AWs' in the dinning room*

Bush only won like 271-267 in 2000 even with Florida.

West Virginia will switch to Kerry I can guarantee that. They always vote democrat. Gore only lost cause he was an environmentalist. Kerry will pick up.

Ohio is going to be the key battleground state this time around. Kerry has a very good chance there. And if he wins Ohio, it's all over.

Kerry says what the people want to hear.

Moldable minds aren't presidential material.

- Card-carrying Republican, and voting for Bush.

i vote kerry... i think bush has a better chance of winning though

Haha, only there IS a green party to take away votes from the Republicans: The US Reform Party, led by Pat Buchanan. I wrote a lengthy article on why Buchanan would take away so many votes for Bush that Bush would lose the election, but it got moved to the Lounge.

Basically the gist of it is this:

Bush has pretty much split the Republican Party in two through his neo-conservatism, just like his daddy did. All the hardline conservatives (not neo-cons, I mean conservatives: pro-balanced budget, anti-war, religious right-wingers) are likely to support the Reform Party, as they did in 1992.

Ross Perot got 15% of the vote in 1992 as the Reform Party. I'm willing to bet Buchanan will get at least 5%, switching the vote to Kerry.

Add to that the factor of job loss, and I think it's reasonable to say that Kerry has a much better chance of winning than Bush. No one thought Clinton would win in 1992, and he won because Bush Sr. was a neo-con who alienated a third of his own party. This is exactly what Bush Jr. is doing?

The Reform Party magazine, American Conservative (www.amconmag.com) is selling very well I hear.

Thank you!!!!!! You represent alot of us underaged republicans! hahaha...

most of my friends take the stance of, "anyone but bush", republican and democrat alike.

I wrote a post that no one has rebutted yet. Basically: Bush WILL lose the election because of the Reform Party. They got 15% of the vote in 1992, I'm betting you they will get at least 5% this year, easily costing Bush the election.

Pat Buchanan's American Conservative magazine is having record sales. It bashes Bush more than anything I've seen on the liberal side. Buchanan has the potential to get even more votes than Nader, as exit polls consisently reveal that 20% of AMericans classify themselves as liberals, while 30% say they are conservative (and 50% moderate). MANY of the "conservatives" are actually conservatives, not neo-cons. They are anti-Bush every bit as much as anti-Kerry. They voted FOR Bush in 2000, because during that election Bush promised a BALANCED BUDGET and a "MORE HUMBLE FOREIGN POLICY" -- his own words. Many of them are going to vote against him just because he went against those promises.

Kerry even has a chance in rock-ribbed Republican Georgia, albeit a very small one, where Buchanan has as high as 8-10% in some exit polls right now, especially among "White Religious-Right", who are upset at Bush's unwillingness to take a hardline on affirmative action and secularism, and at the same time his gallavanting abroad.

If the Libertarian Party nominates Aaron Russo, he has a very good chance at getting alot of Republican votes in Nevada, which will switch the state to Kerry. When he ran for governor of the state as a libertarian, he got 47% in the polls before dropping out because of cancer. In 2000, Bush only won 47% to 46% in Nevada, with the combined Libertarian/Reform vote totally 3%.

Yet another wildcard is RepublicanTexas Congressman Ron Paul (www.paul2004.com), extremely popular among traditional conservatives. When he ran for president in 1988 as an independent, he got over half a million votes: the second most for any independent candidate in American history. He was elected to the House in 1996 and his popularity has only grown since. Right now, he is NOT interested in running, but if he does, that's easily another million or two Bush votes. His forceful opposition to reinstating the Draft recently has also gained him alot of popularity among Goldwater and Reagan-conservatives.

The neo-conservative/conservative split in the Republican Party today is far bigger than any radical/traditional split in the Democratic Party, even in 2000, when Nader took 3% of the vote. 2004 will be a repeat of 1992. I doubt Kerry will win the popular vote, but the Electoral College is on his side. Kerry might get upwards of 300 electoral votes, though I think that a more realistic estimate is 280-ish. The key state is going to be Ohio, which will probably switch to Kerry.

I think Bush'll win, not that I care too much for that, but because current presidents have a (I forgot the percentages) 50-70% chance of winning re-elections.

....

In 1932, Presidents had a 100% chance of being re-elected if they ran for a second term.

That doesn't mean Hoover had a good chance of defeating FDR.

umm i dont read the newspapers for years and plus my channels are not working...so wat was kerry speech and also bush?

It's a wonderous thing invented by two men, a thing called www.google.com. I can say with upmost certainty that typing in "Kerry Speech" or "Bush Speech" will turn up some links to what ever material you are currently intrested in.

personally i dont like bush! bush isnt very open-minded... i like kerry better

i say kerry

I dont follow current politics that much, but I definitely hope Kerry wins... Bush is such a bad leader.. I mean, he did a good job after 9/11 but then it got out of hand.. going into Iraq with little support, going from a surplus to half a trillion in debt..

We were always in debt. There wasn't a time since the WWs that we weren't in debt.

Clinton left office with a surplus, how is that in debt?

as much as i hate to admit it, i think bush is going to win. bush had started the war, now he must end it. one problem is that bush can't even say "social security" right.

For all my logic, I had to forget Clinton and his darn surplus. My bad.



But why do you blame all of this Debt on Bush, not all of it was on his part. Infact, the largest amount of the debt so far came from the recession, not the war, surprisingly.

EDIT::

We're confusing the word deficit with debt. We've been in debt since WWs.

Even when government officials claim to have a surplus, they still spend more than they get in.

What Clinton achieved was surplus on deficit, not debt.

oh well when i first mentinoed "debt" I meant "deficit" and yes, the recession helped, but so did the tax cuts he gave us.. i mean, sure, ppl liked it, but it came at the wrong time.. you cant have tax cuts AND a war at the same time

I agree that the tax cut was rather reckless (I've said so before). So the man made one mistake, albeit a big one, everyone's going to bash him for something he did... that they liked? That's a HUGE contradiction on the people's part.

I never said that he'd lose the election because of it, if you read my first comment, i mentioned that I hope Kerry wins, not that I think he will

I didn't say that you said he would lose... I asked in general why people dislike him for doing something they obviously enjoy?

Sorry if you thought I meant something else

because it ultimately hurts the economy and the country

That's why I said that it was a contradiction on the people's part. Because they obviously want it, and then get mad when someone gives it to them.

OOOOH. i evened the antie. 10 and 10. go me!

and I unevened it

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/05/21/...ain619019.shtml

Food for thought.

A third-party movement can be viable as early as 2006, seeing as the difference between the Democrats and Republicans is narrowing by the day:

Both Kerry and Bush support the Patriot Act.
Both support slavery, in the form of selective service.
Both support increased social spending.
Both support US intervention abroad.

If Bush loses and the Republican Party moves "to the left" in 2004, then we can expect a very substantial conservative backlash afterwards.

Haha, Minda with the daily political update, thanks for keeping us informed!

we are not in the middle of war. the US just can't keep their noses out of other people's business. and i can't say who will win..but i'm hoping that john kerry will win.

KERRY! oh wait, do u mean the fat old dude, kerry or my friend kerry? oh wellz both kerrys would win hahaha stupid bush...